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The Coming Bear Market: Part II How to Prepare
Issue #492, October 16, 2017

Some Observations on Cemeteries
Issue #Interim Bulletin #491A, October 12, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part I: The Myth of Buy and Hold Forever
Issue #491, October 09, 2017

The Market makes New Highs
Issue #490, October 02, 2017

The Importance of a New High
Issue #489, September 25, 2017

A Little Insurance: Wealth, War and Wisdom
Issue #488, September 18, 2017

Some Observations
Issue #487, September 11, 2017

How to be Successful in Your Career
Issue #486A, September 07, 2017

How NOT to Buy a Home
Issue #486, September 04, 2017

This Week in the Market
Issue #485, August 28, 2017

Is the “Trump Bump” Running Out of Gas?
Issue #484, August 21, 2017

Gold is on the Move
Issue #483, August 14, 2017

The Importance of Estimation
Issue #482, August 07, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting: Part II of II
Issue #481, July 31, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting in General, Part I of II
Issue #480, July 24, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful: Follow-up
Issue #479, July 17, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful
Issue #478, July 10, 2017

Your First “Real” Investment
Issue #477, July 03, 2017

Leasing a Watch: Don’t
Issue #476, June 26, 2017

The Importance of Your Children having a Job
Issue #475, June 16, 2017

The Problem with Medical Student Debt is—the Med Schools
Issue #474, June 12, 2017

Critters and Varmints in your Home and Yard
Issue #473A, June 07, 2017

Leveraged ETFs
Issue #472, May 29, 2017

Leasing a Vehicle: Don’t!
Issue #471, May 22, 2017

Issue #470, May 15, 2017

More on Buying Jewelry
Issue #469, May 08, 2017

Buying Jewelry: Gold, Diamonds and Pearls
Issue #468, April 30, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part III of III
Issue #467, April 24, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Pat II of III
Issue #466, April 17, 2017

Live Close to Where You Work
Issue #465, April 10, 2017

Medtronic in Hospital Management
Issue #Interim Bulletin #464A, April 07, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part I of II
Issue #464, April 03, 2017

A Political Contribution a an Investment: Part II of II
Issue #463, March 27, 2017

A Political Contribution as an Investment: Part I of II
Issue #462, March 20, 2017

Buffett Selling Vacation Home
Issue #461, March 13, 2017

Advanced Placement (AP) ourses
Issue #460, March 06, 2017

The Importance of a Credit History
Issue #459A, March 02, 2017

A Credit Card Scam
Issue #459, February 27, 2017

The Electronic Health Reord
Issue #458, February 20, 2017

Issue #457, February 13, 2017

Platinum and Palladium
Issue #456, February 06, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #455A, February 02, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part I of II
Issue #455, January 30, 2017

A Story From Vegas
Issue #454A, January 25, 2017

Land Donation Deals and the IRS
Issue #454, January 23, 2017

The Theory of Gambler’s Ruin
Issue #453, January 16, 2017

Student Loans: But Wait, There’s More!
Issue #452, January 13, 2017

A Second Home
Issue #Interim Bulletin #451A, January 04, 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index
Issue #451, January 02, 2017

Social Security
Issue #450, December 26, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #449, December 19, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: The Market
Issue #448, December 12, 2016

Medicine in 20 Years
Issue #447, December 05, 2016

Higher Interest Rates
Issue #446, November 28, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Bad and Ugly
Issue #445A, November 23, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Good
Issue #445, November 21, 2016

Negative Trends: The Suits aren’t Makin’ Steel
Issue #444, November 16, 2016

The New DOJ Fiduciary Rule
Issue #443, November 07, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part IV of IV
Issue #442, October 31, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part III of IV
Issue #Interim Bulletin #441A, October 26, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part II of IV
Issue #441, October 24, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part I of IV
Issue #440, October 20, 2016

This Newsletter
Issue #439A, October 12, 2016

Memoirs of US Grant: Vol II
Issue #439, October 10, 2016

More Points on Collecting, Investing and the Economy
Issue #Interim Bulletin #438A, October 05, 2016

Personal Memoirs of US Grant
Issue #438, October 03, 2016

Ideas for a High School Part-Time Job
Issue #Interim Bulletin #437A, September 29, 2016

Collecting, Investing, and the Economy
Issue #437, September 26, 2016

Free College
Issue #436A, September 22, 2016

A Military Commitment to Pay for Med School
Issue #436, September 19, 2016

When a CD isn’t a CD
Issue #435, September 12, 2016

I Made a Mistake
Issue #Interim Bulletin #434A, September 07, 2016

What is Your Spare Time Worth?
Issue #434, September 05, 2016

Credit Cards and Bonus/Loyalty Points
Issue #433, August 29, 2016

The Write-off of Student Loans
Issue #Interim Bulletin #432A, August 25, 2016

412 Retirement Plans
Issue #432, August 22, 2016

Join the Club
Issue #Interim Bulletin #431A, August 18, 2016

The Case for Precious Metals and Hard Assets
Issue #431, August 15, 2016

When the US went off the Silver Standard
Issue #430, August 08, 2016

Why NOT to Open a Restaurant
Issue #429, August 01, 2016

Some Tips on Life Insurance
Issue #428, July 25, 2016

More Observations on Negative Interest Rates
Issue #427, July 18, 2016

Issue #426, July 11, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part II of II
Issue #425, July 04, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part I of II
Issue #424, June 27, 2016

Avoid Part-time real Estate Agents
Issue #423, June 20, 2016

Issue #422, June 13, 2016

The Problem with Auction Reserves
Issue #421, June 06, 2016

Make Full Use of Your Capital Investments
Issue #420, May 30, 2016

The Fed’s Announcement
Issue #419, May 23, 2016

Quit While You’re Ahead: A True Story
Issue #418, May 16, 2016

The Precious Metals
Issue #417, May 09, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part Ii of II
Issue #416, May 02, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part I of II
Issue #415, April 25, 2016

Not Winning is not the same as not Losing
Issue #414, April 19, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part II: Weaknesses
Issue #413, April 11, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part I: Valid Points
Issue #412, April 04, 2016

The Most Important Books I’ve Read
Issue #411, March 28, 2016

Secret to Success: Take Risks and do Things Differently
Issue #410, March 21, 2016

The Over-Priced Food Presentation Hustle
Issue #409, March 14, 2016


By Robert M. Doroghazi, M.D., F.A.C.C.

Barron’s Conference, Part I of II

Issue #389, October 26, 2015

Edwin Finn
    Finn is the Editor and President of Barron’s, and provided introductory remarks.
    They believe the bull market will last another 1-2 years and return about 10% over the next 12 months. Interest rates will stay low, and corporate CEOs are positive. Potential problems: 1) Russia is causing trouble. 2) China. 3) Europe.
    The next President will be more conservative than Obama, which is good for the market. Trump is not the best guy: there were too many problems with his business deals (bankruptcies) and he has no experience in foreign policy. Clinton and Bush would be more forceful in the Middle East. We need someone with experience and credibility. (RMD: politics will be discussed at the end of the next newsletter by Greg Valliere).
Felix Zulauf
    Zulauf is my absolute personal favorite, and never disappoints
    We have made a medium-term low (the double bottom in late August/early September). The market recovery will go through the end of the year or early next year, then it will decline through late 2016 or early 2017.
    The US Dollar will be stronger. Bond yields will decline next year, possibly dramatically, then finally turn higher. Central banks all over the world are selling Treasuries to support their currency.
    E-commerce is taking off and disrupting traditional business: GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT vs. WMT.
    Oil will continue to be the dominant source of energy. We must have a supply cut, and it will be from the shale/fracking industry. Price will be capped at $60/barrel. He is still bearish on commodities because of the weak world economy. We must have fiscal stimulus to reflate commodities. Monetary stimulus (more QE) won’t work.
    Next year we will do a little better than Europe. The developing economies will disappoint as the dollar stays strong. China’s growth is really 2% or less. Their manufacturing is in recession. Credit is no longer bringing economic growth. The Chinese have been so successful that they think they know how to control their economy, but they don’t. They are now doing everything wrong. Ex: they spent $250B to support the stock market and it didn’t work, and they can’t stop the slide in the yuan. Their current policies are deflationary. When their currency drops, it will be good for China and bad for everyone else. It will feel like a recession in the US.
    Europe has many different central banks with different targets. Greece will run out of money next year and go bankrupt. Europe is fragile and will enter a recession. The migrants will require fiscal stimulus, which will be positive in the short term and negative in the long term. The Euro may go higher, but then break down below 1.05 and will eventually break parity with the US Dollar. The dollar will strengthen and the Fed will have to intervene to weaken it in 2017. 
    Currency is especially important to the emerging markets, because much of their debt is denominated in US Dollars. They want to devalue their currency to remain competitive, but that immediately increases their debt load. There will be a banking crisis in Asia next year: Hong Kong and esp. Singapore.
    US foreign policy in the Middle East is very naïve. Obama wants to be known as a President who ended wars, but he has started them. The US shouldn’t get involved in the war between Saudi Arabia and Iran because it is religious: Sunni vs. Shiite. Europe can’t handle the refugees, but they will stay.
    His personal investments.
    1) Commercial real estate.
    2) Gold. It may rally to about $1,300, then fall back because of deflation. The authorities will then try to reflate, which will be the time to buy gold because of long-term inflation.
    3) He is neutral on equities. There will be another opportunity to go short late this year or early next.
    4) Bonds. Keep the duration short, about 4-5 years. He will buy US bonds later this year because rates will drop.
    The usual scenario for a bear market is rising interest rates. This time, deflation will cause profits to fall, leading to a recession.
    The Japanese market has shown the way the developed world will go. They will continue to inflate, and the Yen will weaken to 145 to the US Dollar. If you invest in Japan, you must hedge this currency weakness.
    The housing bubble in Canada is worse than the US bubble of 2007. It is a mess.
Scott Black
    Stocks as a whole are expensive. Earnings estimates are too high and will come down. We are currently in the longest period where value has under-performed. There is a lot of speculation: biotechs, Tesla, AMZN, etc., with little relation to fundamentals.
    Arrow Electronics (ARW). Growing 7-8% per year. It generates a lot of free cash and has a low multiple.
    Lennar (LEN). Will deliver 24-24.5K units next year. They have a finance unit and are developing a portfolio of income-producing properties (apartments in the Sun Belt) to make them less cyclical.
    FDX. A great company. Costs will come down by replacing old MD-80s with new 757s. They want earnings to grow 10-15% per year.
    He has owned Wells Fargo (WRC) forever. US Bankcorp (USB) is the best run bank in the country. They are not a money-center bank, more like many community banks run together.
    Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) is his largest holding. Book value is understated. You can’t go wrong at 1.3X book value.
    High-yield bonds: a disaster waiting to happen.
    He’s mostly out of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust), and beware of mid-stream MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships). But he does like Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. (ACRE), who make business development loans. They have been judicious, with no energy exposure, and a 10% dividend.
    Apple (AAPL): cheap. Backing out cash, the P/E is 9. 
    Energy: they sold everything a year ago. Not a good place to be, too much supply.
    What is the best asset class today? “None of the above”.
    Candidates: the people running today are terrible.
    In next week’s letter I will finish the Barron’s Conference, highlighting new presenter Jeff Gundlach (who was awesome), political strategist Gregory Valliere, (who was also excellent), and summarize the major points.
    I was notified by Elsevier that my articles in their publications: The American Journal of Cardiology, and The American Journal of Medicine, have been cited 473 times in the literature. This doesn’t include any citations from what I have written for other publishers, or the series of 5 articles on “Negative Secular Trends in Medicine” that will appear in The American Journal of Medicine starting early next year. From my understanding, that is a strong number.
    RMD comment: Although I was hesitant about it at the time, I have come to appreciate that Issue #295 (1/13/4), “The Importance of a Patron”, is one of my better newsletters. Dr. William C. Roberts, long-time Editor-in-chief of the American Journal of Cardiology, and who wrote the preface to the 2nd edition of my book The Physician’s Guide to Investing, has been the most important person in support of my financial writing. Dr. Roberts introduced me to Dr. Joseph Alpert, Editor-in-chief of The American Journal of Medicine, who has been the most important supporter of my work over the last 2 years about trends in Medicine. My other important patron has been Dr. Eve Slater, who has opened a lot of doors over the last 4 decades since we met at the Mass General.
    I generally believe people are over-insured. In the near future, I will discuss where people can be under-insured, after hearing about two young men in their 30s who had some life insurance and knew they needed more, but had a health event before they got around to it. Now—if they can even get more coverage—it will be very expensive.
    On the train from Penn Station to Newark Airport I saw a man about 50 years old with obsessive-compulsive disorder. He kept a folded paper towel in his hand. He wiped the area between his mouth and nose 6-8 times, then above his right lip 3-4 times, then above his left lip 3-4 times, then his right cheek, then his left cheek, then the right side of his forehead, then the left side, then the back of his neck, stopping at least once or twice during the ritual to meticulously refold the paper towel so a different area was exposed to the skin. Then in 1-2 minutes, he would repeat everything.
    RMD comment: watching this poor man broke my heart. What a pathetic existence.

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