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The Coming Bear Market: Part II How to Prepare
Issue #492, October 16, 2017

Some Observations on Cemeteries
Issue #Interim Bulletin #491A, October 12, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part I: The Myth of Buy and Hold Forever
Issue #491, October 09, 2017

The Market makes New Highs
Issue #490, October 02, 2017

The Importance of a New High
Issue #489, September 25, 2017

A Little Insurance: Wealth, War and Wisdom
Issue #488, September 18, 2017

Some Observations
Issue #487, September 11, 2017

How to be Successful in Your Career
Issue #486A, September 07, 2017

How NOT to Buy a Home
Issue #486, September 04, 2017

This Week in the Market
Issue #485, August 28, 2017

Is the “Trump Bump” Running Out of Gas?
Issue #484, August 21, 2017

Gold is on the Move
Issue #483, August 14, 2017

The Importance of Estimation
Issue #482, August 07, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting: Part II of II
Issue #481, July 31, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting in General, Part I of II
Issue #480, July 24, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful: Follow-up
Issue #479, July 17, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful
Issue #478, July 10, 2017

Your First “Real” Investment
Issue #477, July 03, 2017

Leasing a Watch: Don’t
Issue #476, June 26, 2017

The Importance of Your Children having a Job
Issue #475, June 16, 2017

The Problem with Medical Student Debt is—the Med Schools
Issue #474, June 12, 2017

Critters and Varmints in your Home and Yard
Issue #473A, June 07, 2017

Leveraged ETFs
Issue #472, May 29, 2017

Leasing a Vehicle: Don’t!
Issue #471, May 22, 2017

Issue #470, May 15, 2017

More on Buying Jewelry
Issue #469, May 08, 2017

Buying Jewelry: Gold, Diamonds and Pearls
Issue #468, April 30, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part III of III
Issue #467, April 24, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Pat II of III
Issue #466, April 17, 2017

Live Close to Where You Work
Issue #465, April 10, 2017

Medtronic in Hospital Management
Issue #Interim Bulletin #464A, April 07, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part I of II
Issue #464, April 03, 2017

A Political Contribution a an Investment: Part II of II
Issue #463, March 27, 2017

A Political Contribution as an Investment: Part I of II
Issue #462, March 20, 2017

Buffett Selling Vacation Home
Issue #461, March 13, 2017

Advanced Placement (AP) ourses
Issue #460, March 06, 2017

The Importance of a Credit History
Issue #459A, March 02, 2017

A Credit Card Scam
Issue #459, February 27, 2017

The Electronic Health Reord
Issue #458, February 20, 2017

Issue #457, February 13, 2017

Platinum and Palladium
Issue #456, February 06, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #455A, February 02, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part I of II
Issue #455, January 30, 2017

A Story From Vegas
Issue #454A, January 25, 2017

Land Donation Deals and the IRS
Issue #454, January 23, 2017

The Theory of Gambler’s Ruin
Issue #453, January 16, 2017

Student Loans: But Wait, There’s More!
Issue #452, January 13, 2017

A Second Home
Issue #Interim Bulletin #451A, January 04, 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index
Issue #451, January 02, 2017

Social Security
Issue #450, December 26, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #449, December 19, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: The Market
Issue #448, December 12, 2016

Medicine in 20 Years
Issue #447, December 05, 2016

Higher Interest Rates
Issue #446, November 28, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Bad and Ugly
Issue #445A, November 23, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Good
Issue #445, November 21, 2016

Negative Trends: The Suits aren’t Makin’ Steel
Issue #444, November 16, 2016

The New DOJ Fiduciary Rule
Issue #443, November 07, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part IV of IV
Issue #442, October 31, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part III of IV
Issue #Interim Bulletin #441A, October 26, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part II of IV
Issue #441, October 24, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part I of IV
Issue #440, October 20, 2016

This Newsletter
Issue #439A, October 12, 2016

Memoirs of US Grant: Vol II
Issue #439, October 10, 2016

More Points on Collecting, Investing and the Economy
Issue #Interim Bulletin #438A, October 05, 2016

Personal Memoirs of US Grant
Issue #438, October 03, 2016

Ideas for a High School Part-Time Job
Issue #Interim Bulletin #437A, September 29, 2016

Collecting, Investing, and the Economy
Issue #437, September 26, 2016

Free College
Issue #436A, September 22, 2016

A Military Commitment to Pay for Med School
Issue #436, September 19, 2016

When a CD isn’t a CD
Issue #435, September 12, 2016

I Made a Mistake
Issue #Interim Bulletin #434A, September 07, 2016

What is Your Spare Time Worth?
Issue #434, September 05, 2016

Credit Cards and Bonus/Loyalty Points
Issue #433, August 29, 2016

The Write-off of Student Loans
Issue #Interim Bulletin #432A, August 25, 2016

412 Retirement Plans
Issue #432, August 22, 2016

Join the Club
Issue #Interim Bulletin #431A, August 18, 2016

The Case for Precious Metals and Hard Assets
Issue #431, August 15, 2016

When the US went off the Silver Standard
Issue #430, August 08, 2016

Why NOT to Open a Restaurant
Issue #429, August 01, 2016

Some Tips on Life Insurance
Issue #428, July 25, 2016

More Observations on Negative Interest Rates
Issue #427, July 18, 2016

Issue #426, July 11, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part II of II
Issue #425, July 04, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part I of II
Issue #424, June 27, 2016

Avoid Part-time real Estate Agents
Issue #423, June 20, 2016

Issue #422, June 13, 2016

The Problem with Auction Reserves
Issue #421, June 06, 2016

Make Full Use of Your Capital Investments
Issue #420, May 30, 2016

The Fed’s Announcement
Issue #419, May 23, 2016

Quit While You’re Ahead: A True Story
Issue #418, May 16, 2016

The Precious Metals
Issue #417, May 09, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part Ii of II
Issue #416, May 02, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part I of II
Issue #415, April 25, 2016

Not Winning is not the same as not Losing
Issue #414, April 19, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part II: Weaknesses
Issue #413, April 11, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part I: Valid Points
Issue #412, April 04, 2016

The Most Important Books I’ve Read
Issue #411, March 28, 2016

Secret to Success: Take Risks and do Things Differently
Issue #410, March 21, 2016

The Over-Priced Food Presentation Hustle
Issue #409, March 14, 2016


By Robert M. Doroghazi, M.D., F.A.C.C.

Barron’s Conference, Part III of IV

Issue #Interim Bulletin #441A, October 26, 2016

The Barron’s Art of Successful Investing Conference:
Part III of IV
Mario Gabelli
    Gabelli is one of the biggest names in the investment world, and has been on the Barron’s Roundtable for decades. He is very bright, but talks very rapidly, and skips to new ideas before finishing the previous thought, making it difficult for me to take notes.
    Whoever is elected, we will survive. The budget deficit is causing us to lose flexibility. The trade deficit is also a problem. Corporate taxes in the US are outrageous. Student loans are a monster problem (RMD comment: I have written more on student loans than any other subject. The taxpayers = you and me—will get stuck with the bill).
    Good things. The US Dollar will be stable near-term (RMD comment: it is approaching recent multi-year highs). The oil patch is improving, and low prices are good for consumers. Financials will do better next year. Whoever wins, corporate taxes will come down. Expect stock returns of only 0-5% this year and next.
    Content and connectivity (broadband and speed) are important trends going forward. People want live entertainment. He likes Madison Square Garden (MSG). They have $1.5B in cash. Considering all of their holdings, you are getting the Knicks for free. Anything John Malone touches does well. Millicom (MIICF, currently trading at about 48) is worth $90 per share. At some point Ryman Hospitality (RHP, previously Gaylord Entertainment, the Grand Old Opry) will do better. Virtual reality will changes things, so he likes Sony (SNE). Corporate culture in Japan has changed: they are laying people off.
    US infrastructure needs significant work. 40% of the 520K bridges in the US are rated “D” or lower. Think FAST: Fix American Surface Transport. He likes United Rentals (URI), Ashland (ASH), Herc Holdings (HRI) and Vulcan Materials (VMC).
Oscar Schafer
    Schafer has been a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for 25 years.
    They are having difficulty finding good stocks. His fund is 30% cash, the highest ever. You aren’t losing much in opportunity costs by holding cash because the return on stocks and bonds is so low (RMD comment: that is an insightful point I’ve not heard before). You must expect low returns for the foreseeable future.
    He likes:
    1) Nomad Foods (NOMD): new management.
    2) CommScope (COMM): increased margins and a great manager.
    3) Evertec (EVTC) does transaction processing for ATMs and banks. They will either make acquisitions in Central and South America or be acquired.
    4) ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP) acquires companies then markets their products differently, but does not raise prices.
    5) Maple Leaf Foods (MFI.TO). Likes the CEO.
    6) The Alexa device. You must have one in your home (RMD comment: I can’t adequately explain this device. I suggest you look it up for yourself).
Andrew Wellington
    Wellington co-founded Lyrical Asset Management. His results have far outpaced the market for the last 5 years. This was his first year at the Conference, and I was impressed. He looks at things from a different perspective.
    Warren Buffett likes to buy good companies at a fair price. He is a deep value investor: he wants to buy good companies at an unfair (low) price. The bigger the discount to fair value, the longer they must hold the position to profit (often 5-7 years. His fund has a turnover of only about 20-25% per year). To beat the market, you must do something different (RMD comment: the secret to winning in Texas Hold’Em, see below). They own regular stocks, but at a different weighting, i.e., they have a concentrated portfolio. Companies must have a ROI of at least 15%. The trick is to get future earnings right. They sell when they believe the company has reached fair valuation. He notes much of their gain is a run-up at the end.
    He likes:
    1) Whirlpool (Scott Black also like WHR. Note, they reported poor results and were down more than 10% on Tuesday). Currently priced at 10x earnings. Because appliances last 10 years and there is a creation of only 1% new households per year, more than 10x appliances are sold as replacement as compared to new.
    2) Lincoln National (LNC). The problem is perception. Earnings are growing at 8% per year. Current P/E = 6. When interest rates are low, they charge higher premiums. When rates are high, they earn more on their portfolio, so can decrease premiums.
    3) Microsemi (again, Black also likes MSCC).
    4) Goodyear Tire (GT). Business and profit margins have improved. They are getting out of unprofitable businesses.
    5) EOG Resources (EOG). Although he has trouble evaluating energy companies, he likes EOG. They basically invented fracking. They have the best resource base, and are good at acquisitions.
    Several subscribers noted the Cubs last World Series victory was 1908, not 1905 as I said. One added “111 years or 108 years. Not much difference”.
    RMD comment: Not much difference, but I hate to be wrong. 
    I’m playing in a Senior’s Texas Hold’em tournament in St. Louis on Nov. 1.
    RMD comment: To quote Norman Chad, color commentator on the World Series of Poker, “You can’t win playing scared poker”. Caesar said it even better more than 2,000 years ago: “Fortune favors the bold”.  Wish me luck.
    I retired at the end of 2005. I just received a call at my home from an outlying physician’s office wanting to schedule a patient.
    RMD comment: I admit, that’s a stroke to the old ego.
    Also along this line: when I started in cardiology it was my goal to make the primary diagnosis of 3 congenital heart diseases in the adult. 1) Ebstein’s Anomaly. Didn’t get to do it. 2) Corrected Transposition. Made the diagnosis on a transesophageal echo. 3) Cor Triatriatum. Did it. I see the lady about every 5 years at the grocery store: she brings me up to date on her children. 

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