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The Kids Birthday Party Hustle
Issue #518A, April 18, 2018

A Pension Question: Part II of II
Issue #518, April 16, 2018

A Physician is an Executive
Issue #517A, April 11, 2018

A Pension Question: Part I of II
Issue #517, April 09, 2018

Is the Correction Over?
Issue #516A, April 05, 2018

Used Car Dealers, Student Loans, the Chinese, and Uncle George’s Rule
Issue #516, April 02, 2018

Starter Homes
Issue #515, March 26, 2018

Redecorating: Beware!
Issue #514, March 19, 2018

NASDAQ Closes at Record High
Issue #513, March 12, 2018

A 40% Chance
Issue #512, March 05, 2018

Several Things
Issue #511, February 27, 2018

Human Capital, Education and Wealth
Issue #510, February 19, 2018

Another Stock Market Update
Issue #509A, February 18, 2018

Some Thoughts on Savings
Issue #509, February 12, 2018

A Stock Market Upfate
Issue #508S, February 10, 2018

Who Can You Trust? Part II of II
Issue #508, February 05, 2018

The Christmas Decoration Pre-worn Jeans Hustle
Issue #Interim Bulletin #507A, February 03, 2018

2018 Outlook for Financial Markets
Issue #507, January 29, 2018

Who Can You Trust? Part I of II
Issue #506, January 22, 2018

Life Insurance Settlements
Issue #505, January 15, 2018

Commodities and Buying the Breakout
Issue #504, January 08, 2018

Buffett Wins His Bet
Issue #503A, January 04, 2018

Practice Real Estate and Free Agency
Issue #503, January 01, 2018

Outlook for 2018: Part III: Stocks and Bonds
Issue #502, December 25, 2017

My Outlook for 2018: Part Ii: Precious Metals
Issue #501A, December 21, 2017

Outlook for 2018: Hard Assets: Part I of III
Issue #501, December 18, 2017

More Thoughts on Bitcoin
Issue #500A, December 14, 2017

Fees and Good Relations with Bankers
Issue #500, December 11, 2017

Salvator Mundi
Issue #499A, December 07, 2017

Should You Rent or Own a Home?
Issue #499, December 04, 2017

A Gift Subscription
Issue #Interim Bulletin #498A, December 02, 2017

Stocks vs Real Estate: Asset Allocation: Part II of II
Issue #498, November 27, 2017

When Good Enough is Fine
Issue #497A, November 22, 2017

Stocks vs Real Estate: Asset Allocation. Part I of II
Issue #497, November 20, 2017

The Saudi Arrests and the Perils of Foreign Investing
Issue #496, November 13, 2017

Gambling and Las Vegas
Issue #495, November 06, 2017

Some Tips on Auto Insurance
Issue #494, October 31, 2017

Bitcoin and the Digital (Crypto) Currencies
Issue #493, October 23, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part II How to Prepare
Issue #492, October 16, 2017

Some Observations on Cemeteries
Issue #Interim Bulletin #491A, October 12, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part I: The Myth of Buy and Hold Forever
Issue #491, October 09, 2017

The Market makes New Highs
Issue #490, October 02, 2017

The Importance of a New High
Issue #489, September 25, 2017

A Little Insurance: Wealth, War and Wisdom
Issue #488, September 18, 2017

Some Observations
Issue #487, September 11, 2017

How to be Successful in Your Career
Issue #486A, September 07, 2017

How NOT to Buy a Home
Issue #486, September 04, 2017

This Week in the Market
Issue #485, August 28, 2017

Is the “Trump Bump” Running Out of Gas?
Issue #484, August 21, 2017

Gold is on the Move
Issue #483, August 14, 2017

The Importance of Estimation
Issue #482, August 07, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting: Part II of II
Issue #481, July 31, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting in General, Part I of II
Issue #480, July 24, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful: Follow-up
Issue #479, July 17, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful
Issue #478, July 10, 2017

Your First “Real” Investment
Issue #477, July 03, 2017

Leasing a Watch: Don’t
Issue #476, June 26, 2017

The Importance of Your Children having a Job
Issue #475, June 16, 2017

The Problem with Medical Student Debt is—the Med Schools
Issue #474, June 12, 2017

Critters and Varmints in your Home and Yard
Issue #473A, June 07, 2017

Leveraged ETFs
Issue #472, May 29, 2017

Leasing a Vehicle: Don’t!
Issue #471, May 22, 2017

Escheat
Issue #470, May 15, 2017

More on Buying Jewelry
Issue #469, May 08, 2017

Buying Jewelry: Gold, Diamonds and Pearls
Issue #468, April 30, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part III of III
Issue #467, April 24, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Pat II of III
Issue #466, April 17, 2017

Live Close to Where You Work
Issue #465, April 10, 2017

Medtronic in Hospital Management
Issue #Interim Bulletin #464A, April 07, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part I of II
Issue #464, April 03, 2017

A Political Contribution a an Investment: Part II of II
Issue #463, March 27, 2017

A Political Contribution as an Investment: Part I of II
Issue #462, March 20, 2017

Buffett Selling Vacation Home
Issue #461, March 13, 2017

Advanced Placement (AP) ourses
Issue #460, March 06, 2017

The Importance of a Credit History
Issue #459A, March 02, 2017

A Credit Card Scam
Issue #459, February 27, 2017

The Electronic Health Reord
Issue #458, February 20, 2017

Contracts
Issue #457, February 13, 2017

Platinum and Palladium
Issue #456, February 06, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #455A, February 02, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part I of II
Issue #455, January 30, 2017

A Story From Vegas
Issue #454A, January 25, 2017

Land Donation Deals and the IRS
Issue #454, January 23, 2017

The Theory of Gambler’s Ruin
Issue #453, January 16, 2017

Student Loans: But Wait, There’s More!
Issue #452, January 13, 2017

A Second Home
Issue #Interim Bulletin #451A, January 04, 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index
Issue #451, January 02, 2017

Social Security
Issue #450, December 26, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #449, December 19, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: The Market
Issue #448, December 12, 2016

Medicine in 20 Years
Issue #447, December 05, 2016

Higher Interest Rates
Issue #446, November 28, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Bad and Ugly
Issue #445A, November 23, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Good
Issue #445, November 21, 2016

Negative Trends: The Suits aren’t Makin’ Steel
Issue #444, November 16, 2016

The New DOJ Fiduciary Rule
Issue #443, November 07, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part IV of IV
Issue #442, October 31, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part III of IV
Issue #Interim Bulletin #441A, October 26, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part II of IV
Issue #441, October 24, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part I of IV
Issue #440, October 20, 2016

THE PHYSICIAN INVESTOR NEWSLETTER

HELPING PHYSICIANS ATTAIN FINANCIAL SECURITY
By Robert M. Doroghazi, M.D., F.A.C.C.

More Thoughts on Bitcoin

Issue #500A, December 14, 2017

    1) It could go higher. It could go much—much—higher.
    1A) as a corollary: Never short anything just because it is over-valued, because it can become crazy over-valued. You must wait for it to break in price.
    1B) you can make money, sometimes a lot of money, from momentum investing. Trend following is the MO for many who use futures. There’s nothing wrong with this. After all, the goal of investing is to make money. You just need to be the first one out the door. 
    2) Every fiat currency in the history of humanity has ended up worth zero. Even the (once) mighty US Dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
    3) A pound of bacon, a barrel of oil, the clothes on your back, have intrinsic value. As noted by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her testimony before Congress, Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.
    4) Just as every grave, including the most spectacular of them all, the Great Pyramids, is eventually desecrated, so Bitcoin will eventually be hacked. There are hundreds of billions at stake. Blockchain is a revolutionary concept, but somebody will figure out a way to break it.
    5) Apparently it’s not as anonymous as everyone thinks.
    6) The eventual amount of Bitcoin is capped at 21M. However, there are now more than 1,200 crypto-currencies, so the supply really isn’t capped. 
    7) It seems that Bitcoin is discussed at least every 10 minutes of every day on CNBC. It has captured the public’s imagination. Everyone, even the politicians, are asked their opinion. One guest said it would be $100K in several years, and $1,000,000 in 20 years. This is la-la land uber-mania wacko-level hype. 
    8) Remember this story and the feeling you have now for future reference. This is a blow-off top that will go down in history with the Dutch Tulip Bubble and the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market in 1979/80.
    9) Maybe a one-horse biotech that develops a pill with no side effects that both cures and prevents breast cancer can go up 1000% over-night, but almost nothing else can increase in real value by more than 10-fold in less than a year.
    10) In my personal experience, the greatest, most sure-fire contrary indicator is if physicians are discussing this in the Doctor’s Lounge, because you know it’s time to run for the hills. In late 1999, a physician (I’m not sure his elevator went to the top floor) was bragging how he had doubled his money in one month on a dotcom stock. I thought “If this guy can make that kind of money, it’s time to get out”. 
    11) Here is my main point. When something has increased more than you would have ever imagined, when you are telling yourself what a genius you are, when you are figuring your gain per month, or per week, or per day—SELL!! If it goes up further, or even a lot further, it hurts to leave money on the table (although not as much as it hurts to take a loss), but how often do you make 1000% in one year?
    Many who use highly leveraged investments are disciplined in taking profits. Ex: if their options double, they will sell half. They have guaranteed they will not suffer a loss, and from now on are playing with the house’s money. 
    Consider: if you purchased 3 Bitcoins a year or 2 ago at less than $1,000 each, they are now worth about $50,000. That is a down payment on a home, or if your children are young, this money invested now could fund their educations. These are life-changing events.
    12) One of my favorite sayings: “You never go broke taking a profit”.
                                                                    RMD
    Today’s Wall Street Journal. 4.6M students are now severely behind, defined as no payment in at least a year, on their student loans. This represents 22% of those who should be paying on their student loans.
    RMD comment: Almost one-quarter of students who owe the government (you and me) are deadbeats. A whole generation of students are in hock. More importantly, they are getting the message that they don’t need to pay their debts.
    The government needs to get out of the student loan business. 
   

 

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