Newsletter Archive
Issues older than 90 days

Available Issues

The Dark Side of Student Loans
Issue #528, June 25, 2018

The Cost of Out-sourcing Convenience
Issue #527, June 18, 2018

Social Security: 66 or 70?
Issue #526, June 11, 2018

Student Loans: There’s (Unfortunately) a Lot More!
Issue #525, June 04, 2018

Co-signing a Note
Issue #524A, May 31, 2018

The Knight Frank Luxury Index and Collectables
Issue #524, May 28, 2018

The Importance of Diversification: The Myth of Diversification
Issue #523, May 21, 2018

How to Save Thousands on Your Food Bill
Issue #522, May 14, 2018

MoviePass and Other Things
Issue #521A, May 10, 2018

Degree Inflation, Long Training Periods, and “Certification”  Part III
Issue #521, May 07, 2018

Degree Inflation, Long Training Periods, and Certification” Part II of III
Issue #520, April 30, 2018

Follow-up on Several Things
Issue #519A, April 25, 2018

Degree Inflation, Long Training Periods, and “Certification”: Part I of II
Issue #519, April 23, 2018

The Kids Birthday Party Hustle
Issue #518A, April 18, 2018

A Pension Question: Part II of II
Issue #518, April 16, 2018

A Physician is an Executive
Issue #517A, April 11, 2018

A Pension Question: Part I of II
Issue #517, April 09, 2018

Is the Correction Over?
Issue #516A, April 05, 2018

Used Car Dealers, Student Loans, the Chinese, and Uncle George’s Rule
Issue #516, April 02, 2018

Starter Homes
Issue #515, March 26, 2018

Redecorating: Beware!
Issue #514, March 19, 2018

NASDAQ Closes at Record High
Issue #513, March 12, 2018

A 40% Chance
Issue #512, March 05, 2018

Several Things
Issue #511, February 27, 2018

Human Capital, Education and Wealth
Issue #510, February 19, 2018

Another Stock Market Update
Issue #509A, February 18, 2018

Some Thoughts on Savings
Issue #509, February 12, 2018

A Stock Market Upfate
Issue #508S, February 10, 2018

Who Can You Trust? Part II of II
Issue #508, February 05, 2018

The Christmas Decoration Pre-worn Jeans Hustle
Issue #Interim Bulletin #507A, February 03, 2018

2018 Outlook for Financial Markets
Issue #507, January 29, 2018

Who Can You Trust? Part I of II
Issue #506, January 22, 2018

Life Insurance Settlements
Issue #505, January 15, 2018

Commodities and Buying the Breakout
Issue #504, January 08, 2018

Buffett Wins His Bet
Issue #503A, January 04, 2018

Practice Real Estate and Free Agency
Issue #503, January 01, 2018

Outlook for 2018: Part III: Stocks and Bonds
Issue #502, December 25, 2017

My Outlook for 2018: Part Ii: Precious Metals
Issue #501A, December 21, 2017

Outlook for 2018: Hard Assets: Part I of III
Issue #501, December 18, 2017

More Thoughts on Bitcoin
Issue #500A, December 14, 2017

Fees and Good Relations with Bankers
Issue #500, December 11, 2017

Salvator Mundi
Issue #499A, December 07, 2017

Should You Rent or Own a Home?
Issue #499, December 04, 2017

A Gift Subscription
Issue #Interim Bulletin #498A, December 02, 2017

Stocks vs Real Estate: Asset Allocation: Part II of II
Issue #498, November 27, 2017

When Good Enough is Fine
Issue #497A, November 22, 2017

Stocks vs Real Estate: Asset Allocation. Part I of II
Issue #497, November 20, 2017

The Saudi Arrests and the Perils of Foreign Investing
Issue #496, November 13, 2017

Gambling and Las Vegas
Issue #495, November 06, 2017

Some Tips on Auto Insurance
Issue #494, October 31, 2017

Bitcoin and the Digital (Crypto) Currencies
Issue #493, October 23, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part II How to Prepare
Issue #492, October 16, 2017

Some Observations on Cemeteries
Issue #Interim Bulletin #491A, October 12, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part I: The Myth of Buy and Hold Forever
Issue #491, October 09, 2017

The Market makes New Highs
Issue #490, October 02, 2017

The Importance of a New High
Issue #489, September 25, 2017

A Little Insurance: Wealth, War and Wisdom
Issue #488, September 18, 2017

Some Observations
Issue #487, September 11, 2017

How to be Successful in Your Career
Issue #486A, September 07, 2017

How NOT to Buy a Home
Issue #486, September 04, 2017

This Week in the Market
Issue #485, August 28, 2017

Is the “Trump Bump” Running Out of Gas?
Issue #484, August 21, 2017

Gold is on the Move
Issue #483, August 14, 2017

The Importance of Estimation
Issue #482, August 07, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting: Part II of II
Issue #481, July 31, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting in General, Part I of II
Issue #480, July 24, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful: Follow-up
Issue #479, July 17, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful
Issue #478, July 10, 2017

Your First “Real” Investment
Issue #477, July 03, 2017

Leasing a Watch: Don’t
Issue #476, June 26, 2017

The Importance of Your Children having a Job
Issue #475, June 16, 2017

The Problem with Medical Student Debt is—the Med Schools
Issue #474, June 12, 2017

Critters and Varmints in your Home and Yard
Issue #473A, June 07, 2017

Leveraged ETFs
Issue #472, May 29, 2017

Leasing a Vehicle: Don’t!
Issue #471, May 22, 2017

Issue #470, May 15, 2017

More on Buying Jewelry
Issue #469, May 08, 2017

Buying Jewelry: Gold, Diamonds and Pearls
Issue #468, April 30, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part III of III
Issue #467, April 24, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Pat II of III
Issue #466, April 17, 2017

Live Close to Where You Work
Issue #465, April 10, 2017

Medtronic in Hospital Management
Issue #Interim Bulletin #464A, April 07, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part I of II
Issue #464, April 03, 2017

A Political Contribution a an Investment: Part II of II
Issue #463, March 27, 2017

A Political Contribution as an Investment: Part I of II
Issue #462, March 20, 2017

Buffett Selling Vacation Home
Issue #461, March 13, 2017

Advanced Placement (AP) ourses
Issue #460, March 06, 2017

The Importance of a Credit History
Issue #459A, March 02, 2017

A Credit Card Scam
Issue #459, February 27, 2017

The Electronic Health Reord
Issue #458, February 20, 2017

Issue #457, February 13, 2017

Platinum and Palladium
Issue #456, February 06, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #455A, February 02, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part I of II
Issue #455, January 30, 2017

A Story From Vegas
Issue #454A, January 25, 2017

Land Donation Deals and the IRS
Issue #454, January 23, 2017

The Theory of Gambler’s Ruin
Issue #453, January 16, 2017

Student Loans: But Wait, There’s More!
Issue #452, January 13, 2017

A Second Home
Issue #Interim Bulletin #451A, January 04, 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index
Issue #451, January 02, 2017


By Robert M. Doroghazi, M.D., F.A.C.C.

The Market makes New Highs

Issue #490, October 02, 2017

    Before getting to the main topic: If you wish to communicate with me directly, do not do it by responding to the notices that a newsletter has been posted or through the website. Please use my personal email listed above.
    Last week I talked about the significance of an individual stock making a new high: people are willing to pay more than they paid before. This week all of the major averages, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the DJIA closed at or made new highs. There were several other averages that made new highs that are worthy of note.
    1) I’ve mentioned Lowry’s many times before. I feel they are the best technical forecasting service in the business. They note that the final top of the bull market is a process: the leadership gets narrower and narrower. First the small cap stocks fade, then the mid-caps. The strength of the big and mega cap stocks disguises the weakness in the broad market, and carries the major averages to the final high.
    That’s why I believe it is important that the Russell 2000 (chart below) blasted to a new high this week. This suggests that the broad market is participating in the advance.
    2) The Financials, as represented by XLF (see chart, p3), an ETF of the largest financials, such as Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), etc.) made a new high. It’s difficult for the broad market to be strong without the participation of the Financials.
    3) The Dow Transports made a new high. There are 6 components to formal Dow Theory. One says that a high in the DJIA should be confirmed by a high in the Transports. The reasoning is that the factories make the goods, but they must be carried to market by the Transports (in original Dow Theory, this was the Rails), so both should move in tandem. If they don’t, if one makes a new high and the other doesn’t, this “non-confirmation” of one average by the other should be a warning signal.
    The more I read about Dow Theory, the less impressed I am that it predicts the direction of the market. Think of it kind of like a horoscope. If you believe in it, and it says you’re going to have a good day, then you’ll have a good day (and you’ll credit the horoscope for it, and remain a believer). If you don’t believe in it, and you have a good day, you still probably won’t believe, but you might read it a little more often.

    This is the 2nd longest bull market ever. It will, of course, end sometime. But last week’s action was quite bullish. To me, probabilities suggest we’re probably OK through the end of the year.
    Since the DJIA bottomed on March 6, 2009 at 6443, it has returned 16%—plus dividends—per year. Unfortunately, periods of over-performance, like 1982-2000, are followed by periods of under-performance, like 2000-2009. Returns are minimal. Next week’s newsletter will discuss how you should prepare for this coming period of low returns, especially if you are on a fixed income.

    The latest issue of Forbes is their 100th anniversary. There is a list of the largest companies in Forbes first year, 50 years later, and now.
      1917                         1967                         2017
    1) US Steel                 1) IBM                       1) Apple
    2) AT&T                   2) AT&T                     2) Google
    3) Standard Oil NJ         3) Eastman Kodak           3) Microsoft
    4) Bethlehem Steel         4) Gen Motors               4) Amazon
    5) Armour                 5) Standard Oil NJ           5) Berkshire Hathaway
    6) Swift                     6) Texaco                     6) Facebook                
    7) Intern. Harvester         7) Sears                       7) J&J
    8) DuPont                   8) GE                         8) Exxon Mobil
    9) Midvale Steel           9) Polaroid                   9) JP Morgan
    10) GE                     10) Gulf Oil                 10) Wells Fargo
    RMD comment: 1) The US has moved away from an industrial-based economy to one dominated by tech, finances and services. 2) There were no medical/pharma companies in the top 50 in 1917 (but there were 2 tobacco companies). There were a handful in 1967, and more in 2017, with J&J breaking into the top ten. I believe this shows the innovation of US pharma, aided by the basic research funded by the National Institutes of Health. 3) In 2017, 5 of the 6 largest companies are tech. This is because, at least for now, tech is lightly regulated in the US. Note though, that the EU is already going after US Big Tech. 4) Berkshire Hathaway is really just the stocks collected by Warren Buffett over the last 50 years. The fact that it is larger than all companies except the mega-techs is a testament to his genius. 
    Brother Paul, a retired surgeon, told me that in the early 80s he met a man who was a prominent chest surgeon in China in the 50s and 60s. Along came Mao’s Cultural Revolution, and he was banished to the hospital kitchen. Medical students would bring in X-rays and hold them up to the light for his opinion—while he was washing the dishes.     
  This is from a sharp young man who has taken this newsletter since he was a med student. He has trained at first-class institutions and is now finishing his Radiology Residency in a field in high demand, so he is in a strong position. “Main thing is to avoid groups/institutions that have tried to commoditize radiologists. There is one group I know of that has stop lights in the reading rooms tracking productivity and you are not to leave until it turns green at the end of the day”.
    RMD comment: This is what happens when the “suits” run Medicine. One of the allures of being a doc is being your own boss. Anybody who would put up with this foolishness deserves what they get. Unfortunately, “lifestyle” (defined however you want to define it) is now at the top of many physician’s priorities, so they will grin and bear it. I think it’s terrible. 
    I saw this on Facebook:
This year thousands of men
will die of stubbornness.


Site by Delta Systems powered by ExpressionEngine