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The Importance of Your Children having a Job
Issue #475, June 16, 2017

The Problem with Medical Student Debt is—the Med Schools
Issue #474, June 12, 2017

Critters and Varmints in your Home and Yard
Issue #473A, June 07, 2017

Leveraged ETFs
Issue #472, May 29, 2017

Leasing a Vehicle: Don’t!
Issue #471, May 22, 2017

Escheat
Issue #470, May 15, 2017

More on Buying Jewelry
Issue #469, May 08, 2017

Buying Jewelry: Gold, Diamonds and Pearls
Issue #468, April 30, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part III of III
Issue #467, April 24, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Pat II of III
Issue #466, April 17, 2017

Live Close to Where You Work
Issue #465, April 10, 2017

Medtronic in Hospital Management
Issue #Interim Bulletin #464A, April 07, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part I of II
Issue #464, April 03, 2017

A Political Contribution a an Investment: Part II of II
Issue #463, March 27, 2017

A Political Contribution as an Investment: Part I of II
Issue #462, March 20, 2017

Buffett Selling Vacation Home
Issue #461, March 13, 2017

Advanced Placement (AP) ourses
Issue #460, March 06, 2017

The Importance of a Credit History
Issue #459A, March 02, 2017

A Credit Card Scam
Issue #459, February 27, 2017

The Electronic Health Reord
Issue #458, February 20, 2017

Contracts
Issue #457, February 13, 2017

Platinum and Palladium
Issue #456, February 06, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #455A, February 02, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part I of II
Issue #455, January 30, 2017

A Story From Vegas
Issue #454A, January 25, 2017

Land Donation Deals and the IRS
Issue #454, January 23, 2017

The Theory of Gambler’s Ruin
Issue #453, January 16, 2017

Student Loans: But Wait, There’s More!
Issue #452, January 13, 2017

A Second Home
Issue #Interim Bulletin #451A, January 04, 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index
Issue #451, January 02, 2017

Social Security
Issue #450, December 26, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #449, December 19, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: The Market
Issue #448, December 12, 2016

Medicine in 20 Years
Issue #447, December 05, 2016

Higher Interest Rates
Issue #446, November 28, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Bad and Ugly
Issue #445A, November 23, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Good
Issue #445, November 21, 2016

Negative Trends: The Suits aren’t Makin’ Steel
Issue #444, November 16, 2016

The New DOJ Fiduciary Rule
Issue #443, November 07, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part IV of IV
Issue #442, October 31, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part III of IV
Issue #Interim Bulletin #441A, October 26, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part II of IV
Issue #441, October 24, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part I of IV
Issue #440, October 20, 2016

This Newsletter
Issue #439A, October 12, 2016

Memoirs of US Grant: Vol II
Issue #439, October 10, 2016

More Points on Collecting, Investing and the Economy
Issue #Interim Bulletin #438A, October 05, 2016

Personal Memoirs of US Grant
Issue #438, October 03, 2016

Ideas for a High School Part-Time Job
Issue #Interim Bulletin #437A, September 29, 2016

Collecting, Investing, and the Economy
Issue #437, September 26, 2016

Free College
Issue #436A, September 22, 2016

A Military Commitment to Pay for Med School
Issue #436, September 19, 2016

When a CD isn’t a CD
Issue #435, September 12, 2016

I Made a Mistake
Issue #Interim Bulletin #434A, September 07, 2016

What is Your Spare Time Worth?
Issue #434, September 05, 2016

Credit Cards and Bonus/Loyalty Points
Issue #433, August 29, 2016

The Write-off of Student Loans
Issue #Interim Bulletin #432A, August 25, 2016

412 Retirement Plans
Issue #432, August 22, 2016

Join the Club
Issue #Interim Bulletin #431A, August 18, 2016

The Case for Precious Metals and Hard Assets
Issue #431, August 15, 2016

When the US went off the Silver Standard
Issue #430, August 08, 2016

Why NOT to Open a Restaurant
Issue #429, August 01, 2016

Some Tips on Life Insurance
Issue #428, July 25, 2016

More Observations on Negative Interest Rates
Issue #427, July 18, 2016

Embezzlement
Issue #426, July 11, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part II of II
Issue #425, July 04, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part I of II
Issue #424, June 27, 2016

Avoid Part-time real Estate Agents
Issue #423, June 20, 2016

The VIX
Issue #422, June 13, 2016

The Problem with Auction Reserves
Issue #421, June 06, 2016

Make Full Use of Your Capital Investments
Issue #420, May 30, 2016

The Fed’s Announcement
Issue #419, May 23, 2016

Quit While You’re Ahead: A True Story
Issue #418, May 16, 2016

The Precious Metals
Issue #417, May 09, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part Ii of II
Issue #416, May 02, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part I of II
Issue #415, April 25, 2016

Not Winning is not the same as not Losing
Issue #414, April 19, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part II: Weaknesses
Issue #413, April 11, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part I: Valid Points
Issue #412, April 04, 2016

The Most Important Books I’ve Read
Issue #411, March 28, 2016

Secret to Success: Take Risks and do Things Differently
Issue #410, March 21, 2016

The Over-Priced Food Presentation Hustle
Issue #409, March 14, 2016

The War on Cash
Issue #408, March 07, 2016

Precious Metals: Don’t Jump in Yet
Issue #407, February 29, 2016

The Bear is Growling
Issue #406, February 22, 2016

The Importance of Showing Respect
Issue #405, February 15, 2016

The 80-20 Rule of Thumb Pareto Principle
Issue #404, February 08, 2016

Some Tips on Commercial Real Estate
Issue #403, February 01, 2016

Economic Outlook for 2016
Issue #402, January 25, 2016

Selling Short: Part II of II
Issue #401, January 18, 2016

Short-Selling. Part I. How it Works
Issue #400, January 11, 2016

Who Can You Trust, and How to Spot a Con Man
Issue #399, January 04, 2016

Outlook for 2016: Part II of II
Issue #398, December 28, 2015

My Outlook for 2016, Part I of II
Issue #397, December 21, 2015

Want to Live a Long Time?
Issue #396, December 14, 2015

Some Tips on Retirement
Issue #395, December 04, 2015

Negative Interest Rates
Issue #394, November 30, 2015

What if the US Dollar Breaks to New Highs
Issue #393, November 23, 2015

How to Decrease Student Debt by 25%
Issue #392, November 16, 2015

The Importance of Buying Life Insurance when you are Young
Issue #391, November 09, 2015

Barron’s Conference, Part II of II
Issue #390, November 02, 2015

THE PHYSICIAN INVESTOR NEWSLETTER

HELPING PHYSICIANS ATTAIN FINANCIAL SECURITY
By Robert M. Doroghazi, M.D., F.A.C.C.

The Precious Metals

Issue #417, May 09, 2016

    To review: Gold and silver bottomed in 2001 at $255 and $4 respectively. They peaked in 2011 at $1,900 and $48 ($50 was the previous peak in 1980), then suffered a Hiroshima-like smackdown in April, 2013. They have been on fire since bottoming in mid-December at $1,050 and $13.60. GDX (an ETF of the largest miners, such as Barrick (ABX), Newmont (NEM), Randgold (GOLD) and Gold Corp (GG), and GDXJ (an ETF of the junior miners) were at one time up more than 100% and 130% from their recent lows. Is this just another false start, or have we seen the lows? Have the precious metals finally turned?
    The general timing is right. Commodity bear markets bottom about 5-6 years after the previous top.
    Major moves never just happen, they are always driven by fundamental factors. For the precious metals in the US, it’s the Dollar. The precious metals did well from 2001-2011 because of a bear market in the Dollar. When people are confident in paper (fiat) money, the precious metals are weak. Since 2011, the Dollar has been strong, and the precious metals suffered terribly. The last 4 months, the Dollar has weakened, and the precious metals, in fact, the entire commodity space, have done well.
    Likewise, nothing goes straight down or straight up. The precious metals are due for a rest. Anything, of course, can happen, but I think this is a very possible scenario. Gold, silver and the miners are due for a correction. The recent highs were $1,310 and $17.60. The metals could back off from here, or go a little higher, then correct, while the Dollar bounces from the 92-93 level. Note that the miners tend to lead the metals both up and down. The US Dollar then seriously breaks down, and the precious metals take off. If things unfold this way, this is when I’ll recommend you jump back in.
                                                                  RMD
    At the Sohn Conference last week, Stanley Druckenmiller recommended you should be out of stocks, and noted that his largest “currency” position is gold. 
    Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost their AAA credit rating (with profits down, they are borrowing to maintain (increase) their dividend). The only US corporations to retain the coveted AAA rating are Microsoft (MSFT) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). In 2011, the US government lost their AAA rating.
    RMD comment: doesn’t anyone care anymore? We have lost our respect for and fear of debt. Debt is financial slavery. Your master says you will send a check every month, or suffer the consequences. There is no better investment in the world that the early repayment of debt. Thrift creates wealth, debt destroys wealth.
    Accumulate 12 Starbuck’s (SBUX) “Stars” and you get a free beverage or food item.
    RMD comment: Remember Top Value Stamps and S&H Green Stamps? Mom and Grandma Nagy were big into Eagle Stamps because Famous-Barr gave them. One stamp for every 10 cents of purchase. You then put them in a book at 50 per page. I don’t remember the exact # of pages in a book, probably 20 (represented $100 purchase. Remember, this was the 50s and early 60s. That was a lot of money). I well remember that a whole book was worth $2.50 in merchandise. At Famous and the other stores that took them, they were as good as money. The ladies at the counter wore rubber fingers so they could go through the books quickly to make sure all of the spaces were filled.
    The “Stars” are really just a form of loyalty points. Starbucks is a smart outfit.
    Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos sold 1M shares, about 1% of his stake, for $671M.
    RMD comment: there are many reasons an insider buys stock, but there is only one reason they sell: because they think it is going lower. Add in that AMZN is up about 130% since Feb. of 2015, and that almost all of the proceeds of Bezos’ sale are presumably taxable, and it doesn’t paint a bullish picture. 
    This is from a long-time subscriber re: long training periods.
    “It is no small irony that training and recertification requirements for physicians are being raised at a time when there is a movement afoot to hand over increasing amounts of authority to lesser trained professionals. How do you tell someone contemplating a career in General Internal Medicine they will need to undergo 11 years of training (4 years of college, 4 years of med school, and 3 years of Residency), certify for Internal Medicine and recertify every 10 years, and undergo increasing CME requirements, while at the same time a Nurse Practitioner or PA will be considered to have a comparable skill set?”
    RMD comment: Very interesting point. My series of 5 Commentaries in The American Journal of Medicine on “Negative Secular Trends in Medicine” looks at things from the top end: losing the smartest kids in the class, who can do whatever they wish. This suggests that those at the lower end of the earnings spectrum are also at risk.
    In fact, a previous study has shown that, considering the length of training required and the time cost of money, it is a better investment to be a Physician’s Assistant (PA) than be in the lower earning half of General Practitioners, a sorry state of affairs for females, since they represent most of the lower earning physicians.
    See:  Doroghazi RM. Negative Secular Trends in Medicine: Summary. Am J Med. 2016;129(5):459-460.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amjmed.2015.08.045   
    Your hospital or med school librarian can download the article for you. If this is not an option, feel free to contact Boone Hospital librarian Judy Feintuch at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  There should be no charge to you for this.     

    1) Join AAA. Almost anything associated with travel offers a discount. Just ask: you will be very surprised. Many hotels offer a discount. The main parking lot at Lambert St. Louis Airport offers a AAA discount. It is very likely you will receive enough discounts to cover the membership fee. In the end, you receive the road service for free. That provides a lot of comfort.
    2) Join your local University Club: they have reciprocity with 100 or more U. Clubs around the US. Ex: joining the U. of Missouri Reynold’s Club has allowed me all of the privileges of the Quadrangle Club at the U. of Chicago. I have also had dinner at several otherwise exclusive University Clubs around the US.
    3) Ditto for your local Art Museum. They often have reciprocity with other museums. You’ll save on admission, and receive a discount on purchases at the museum shop. 
    These are the kinds of things you won’t see elsewhere, yet they’re simple, and over the long run, will save you far more than the cost of this newsletter. 
    Warren Buffett said put your money in the mattress if banks charge for deposits.
    RMD comment: negative interest rates are an abomination. You bust your chops, save your money, and then have to pay the bank to hold it. Ridiculous. In fact, if rates go negative in the US, I wouldn’t be surprised if Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) wouldn’t outperform the market. After all, who better to trust your money than Warren Buffett.
    Several years ago Carl Icahn called Apple (AAPL) a “no-brainer” and said it was going to $240. It was revealed last week that Icahn has sold his stake in AAPL (at least in part because of what’s going on in China).
    RMD comment: This is not a negative comment on Icahn. Rather, it is to remind you that people talk their own book: It’s up to you not to be seduced by such comments.

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