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The Coming Bear Market: Part II How to Prepare
Issue #492, October 16, 2017

Some Observations on Cemeteries
Issue #Interim Bulletin #491A, October 12, 2017

The Coming Bear Market: Part I: The Myth of Buy and Hold Forever
Issue #491, October 09, 2017

The Market makes New Highs
Issue #490, October 02, 2017

The Importance of a New High
Issue #489, September 25, 2017

A Little Insurance: Wealth, War and Wisdom
Issue #488, September 18, 2017

Some Observations
Issue #487, September 11, 2017

How to be Successful in Your Career
Issue #486A, September 07, 2017

How NOT to Buy a Home
Issue #486, September 04, 2017

This Week in the Market
Issue #485, August 28, 2017

Is the “Trump Bump” Running Out of Gas?
Issue #484, August 21, 2017

Gold is on the Move
Issue #483, August 14, 2017

The Importance of Estimation
Issue #482, August 07, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting: Part II of II
Issue #481, July 31, 2017

Buying Art and Collecting in General, Part I of II
Issue #480, July 24, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful: Follow-up
Issue #479, July 17, 2017

Physicians need to be More Forceful
Issue #478, July 10, 2017

Your First “Real” Investment
Issue #477, July 03, 2017

Leasing a Watch: Don’t
Issue #476, June 26, 2017

The Importance of Your Children having a Job
Issue #475, June 16, 2017

The Problem with Medical Student Debt is—the Med Schools
Issue #474, June 12, 2017

Critters and Varmints in your Home and Yard
Issue #473A, June 07, 2017

Leveraged ETFs
Issue #472, May 29, 2017

Leasing a Vehicle: Don’t!
Issue #471, May 22, 2017

Issue #470, May 15, 2017

More on Buying Jewelry
Issue #469, May 08, 2017

Buying Jewelry: Gold, Diamonds and Pearls
Issue #468, April 30, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part III of III
Issue #467, April 24, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Pat II of III
Issue #466, April 17, 2017

Live Close to Where You Work
Issue #465, April 10, 2017

Medtronic in Hospital Management
Issue #Interim Bulletin #464A, April 07, 2017

Thomas Sowell: Part I of II
Issue #464, April 03, 2017

A Political Contribution a an Investment: Part II of II
Issue #463, March 27, 2017

A Political Contribution as an Investment: Part I of II
Issue #462, March 20, 2017

Buffett Selling Vacation Home
Issue #461, March 13, 2017

Advanced Placement (AP) ourses
Issue #460, March 06, 2017

The Importance of a Credit History
Issue #459A, March 02, 2017

A Credit Card Scam
Issue #459, February 27, 2017

The Electronic Health Reord
Issue #458, February 20, 2017

Issue #457, February 13, 2017

Platinum and Palladium
Issue #456, February 06, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #455A, February 02, 2017

Economic Outlook for 2017: Part I of II
Issue #455, January 30, 2017

A Story From Vegas
Issue #454A, January 25, 2017

Land Donation Deals and the IRS
Issue #454, January 23, 2017

The Theory of Gambler’s Ruin
Issue #453, January 16, 2017

Student Loans: But Wait, There’s More!
Issue #452, January 13, 2017

A Second Home
Issue #Interim Bulletin #451A, January 04, 2017

The Consumer Confidence Index
Issue #451, January 02, 2017

Social Security
Issue #450, December 26, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: Part II of II
Issue #449, December 19, 2016

My Outlook for 2017: The Market
Issue #448, December 12, 2016

Medicine in 20 Years
Issue #447, December 05, 2016

Higher Interest Rates
Issue #446, November 28, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Bad and Ugly
Issue #445A, November 23, 2016

Trump and the Markets: The Good
Issue #445, November 21, 2016

Negative Trends: The Suits aren’t Makin’ Steel
Issue #444, November 16, 2016

The New DOJ Fiduciary Rule
Issue #443, November 07, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part IV of IV
Issue #442, October 31, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part III of IV
Issue #Interim Bulletin #441A, October 26, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part II of IV
Issue #441, October 24, 2016

Barron’s Conference, Part I of IV
Issue #440, October 20, 2016

This Newsletter
Issue #439A, October 12, 2016

Memoirs of US Grant: Vol II
Issue #439, October 10, 2016

More Points on Collecting, Investing and the Economy
Issue #Interim Bulletin #438A, October 05, 2016

Personal Memoirs of US Grant
Issue #438, October 03, 2016

Ideas for a High School Part-Time Job
Issue #Interim Bulletin #437A, September 29, 2016

Collecting, Investing, and the Economy
Issue #437, September 26, 2016

Free College
Issue #436A, September 22, 2016

A Military Commitment to Pay for Med School
Issue #436, September 19, 2016

When a CD isn’t a CD
Issue #435, September 12, 2016

I Made a Mistake
Issue #Interim Bulletin #434A, September 07, 2016

What is Your Spare Time Worth?
Issue #434, September 05, 2016

Credit Cards and Bonus/Loyalty Points
Issue #433, August 29, 2016

The Write-off of Student Loans
Issue #Interim Bulletin #432A, August 25, 2016

412 Retirement Plans
Issue #432, August 22, 2016

Join the Club
Issue #Interim Bulletin #431A, August 18, 2016

The Case for Precious Metals and Hard Assets
Issue #431, August 15, 2016

When the US went off the Silver Standard
Issue #430, August 08, 2016

Why NOT to Open a Restaurant
Issue #429, August 01, 2016

Some Tips on Life Insurance
Issue #428, July 25, 2016

More Observations on Negative Interest Rates
Issue #427, July 18, 2016

Issue #426, July 11, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part II of II
Issue #425, July 04, 2016

Is a PhD Worth It? Part I of II
Issue #424, June 27, 2016

Avoid Part-time real Estate Agents
Issue #423, June 20, 2016

Issue #422, June 13, 2016

The Problem with Auction Reserves
Issue #421, June 06, 2016

Make Full Use of Your Capital Investments
Issue #420, May 30, 2016

The Fed’s Announcement
Issue #419, May 23, 2016

Quit While You’re Ahead: A True Story
Issue #418, May 16, 2016

The Precious Metals
Issue #417, May 09, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part Ii of II
Issue #416, May 02, 2016

Negative Secular Trends: Part I of II
Issue #415, April 25, 2016

Not Winning is not the same as not Losing
Issue #414, April 19, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part II: Weaknesses
Issue #413, April 11, 2016

Behavioral Economics: Part I: Valid Points
Issue #412, April 04, 2016

The Most Important Books I’ve Read
Issue #411, March 28, 2016

Secret to Success: Take Risks and do Things Differently
Issue #410, March 21, 2016

The Over-Priced Food Presentation Hustle
Issue #409, March 14, 2016


By Robert M. Doroghazi, M.D., F.A.C.C.

What is Your Spare Time Worth?

Issue #434, September 05, 2016

    The average physician in the US makes about $250K per year. For this discussion, let’s make the numbers easy and round that up to $280K. Many physicians who take this newsletter make significantly more. Whatever you make, adjust the numbers accordingly.
    If you work 280 days per year, you take home $1,000 per working day, $100 per hour for a 10 hour day (I worked about 70-72 hours per week). BUT: your professional time is actually worth much more. The average physician supports 5 office employees, and bills for at least $200 per hour.
    Point #1: Since you’ve already covered overhead, whatever more you bill flows directly to the bottom line. Your spare time is worth—at least—$200 per hour.
    Some physicians would like to make extra money, so they think about participating in a business venture. I recently reviewed the folly of opening a restaurant, advice which applies to any other non-medical business. You think you have an idea for the novel of the century. Line up with a million people you’ve never heard of. To make a living from writing, or for this discussion, a doctor-level living, you would have to be a Max Hastings, David McCullough quality writer.
    Point #2: I challenge you to think of a scenario where you just show up without years of training and make $200 per hour. If you do think of something, I would be interested.
    You want to be a prominent physician, and will do whatever it takes. The average physician has about 3 hours of discretionary time per weekday. That includes meals, your medical reading, playing with the kids, writing checks, looking at the TV, reading the paper, etc. Working one more hour per day cuts your weekday leisure time by 1/3.
    Point #3: What do you need to satisfy your ego? A) If you can’t live on $300K per year, I submit you’ll have just as much trouble living on $350K. B) I have never heard anyone say they wish they’d spent less time with their children. C) A doctor will never be the richest guy in town. Many will always have a lot more. The very wealthy have so much more than you that it doesn’t even make any difference where you put the decimal point. D) All you need is enough to spend in one lifetime. E) Be careful with your money, so when you’re 60 or 65 you can work because you like it, not because you must.
    One time the above discussion doesn’t apply is if you are transitioning to an activity for retirement. A local physician helped his children start a vineyard and restaurant that has been very successful and is now in its third decade.
    Although I’m retired, when someone wastes my time, I still ring my mental cash register at $200 per hour. 
    My final recommendation: there is no spare-time activity I can think of that will generate a physician-level income of $200 per hour. If you want to make more money, forget any non-medical business, just see one more consult per day.   
    What is the only animal that walks through the forest without regularly stopping to look for danger? Answer at the end of the newsletter.
    OP/ED Wall Street Journal (9/1/16): “The 5,000-Year Government Debt Bubble”.
    RMD comment: 5,000 years is of Biblical proportions, totally antediluvian (means before the flood of Gilgamesh and Noah, about 2700 BCE). The manipulation of interest rates (and secondarily, all markets) by central banks will eventually unravel and won’t end well. If you should avoid bonds because interest rates will eventually rise, where should you put your money? Getting back to the Biblical analogy, for recorded history the 3 universal forms of wealth are 1) human capital. In times past, this was slaves. At present, employers gain from the toil of their employees. An individual’s human capital is their ability to work. For practical purposes, a physician can bill only for services they directly provide. 2) Land, and 3) gold. I suggest A) well-chosen real estate: the yield (rent) is far higher than bonds, and real estate tracks inflation well. B) As outlined in recent notes, I believe we have seen the bottom in the precious metals, and the bull market has resumed.   
    In last week’s discussion about the precious metals, I forgot to mention the double-leveraged ETFs. I feel they are to be avoided: futures are a much more efficient vehicle for this type of position. There are also triple-leveraged ETFs for the miners: NUGT is triple positive and DUST is triple negative. The movement of these can be bonkers wild, easily 10-20% per day. When they go for you, you feel like a genius. When the go against you, you want to jump out the nearest window. Don’t be seduced: avoid them also.
    The European Commission has “ordered” Ireland to recover up to 13B euros (about $14.5B)—plus interest—in back taxes from Apple (AAPL). Apple CEO Tim Cook called it “political crap”.
    RMD comment: Rock on, Tim. Unelected, pointy-headed, I-know-what’s-better-for-you-than-you-know-what’s-best-for-yourself bureaucrats tell a sovereign country what to do. I hope Ireland is as forceful as Tim Cook. This is a perfect example of why the concept of the Euro is illogical and will fail. It will be interesting to see what Felix Zulauf has to say about this at the Barron’s Art of Successful Investing Conference on October 15 in Manhattan.
    Ten years ago, I made big money on POT (Potash Saskatchewan). Over the last 3-5 years, the fertilizer/agricultural stocks, along with most commodity stocks, have been hammered. POT pays a 5%+ dividend that Barron’s feels is safe. In the accompanying chart, POT looks like it has bottomed (other fertilizer stocks, such as Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU) look similar). Last week I talked to 2 people from Nebraska intimately involved in the agriculture business. They feel there may still be one more year of pain.
    RMD comment: stocks lead the economy by about 6-9 months. I’ll be watching the agricultural stocks. It will be interesting if POT breaks out.

    WW I started in 1914. 33-37% of the men born in the main belligerents—Germany, Austria-Hungary, France and Great Britain—in 1892-1895, 18-21 years of age when the war broke out, died in the Great War. 83% of the males born in Russia in 1923—18 years old when Hitler invaded in 1941—perished. It will be interesting (depressing) to see how many males born in 1995 in Syria or Iraq are alive in 2025.
    Please read Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary (Dick Morris, with Eileen McGann, Humanix Books). The book is credible because Morris was Bill Clinton’s campaign manager in 1996. For the Clintons, “not guilty is the same as innocent”.
    RMD comment: Barron’s recently said (I’m paraphrasing) “people will hold their nose and vote for Hillary”. You read this book, and you’ll hold your nose and vote for Trump—which I intend to do. More on this as the election approaches.
    I couldn’t put down the original Bram Stoker’s Dracula. Ten times more exciting than any vampire movie ever made. 
    The only animal that walks through the forest without regularly stopping to look for danger is——-man. I learned that from a Granite City Steel buddie in 1972.           

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